A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
